| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 11:00 PM EDT on March 24, 2026. It matters for traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone monitoring short-term weather risk in the NYC area.
Late March in New York is a transitional period with wide day-to-day variability driven by passing synoptic systems and coastal influences; forecasts for a specific hour can change as storms, fronts, or cloud cover evolve. The contract offered on KALSHI is split into discrete outcomes (7); check the contract page for exact bins, settlement source, and the official close time which is listed as TBD on the event summary.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations and complement meteorological forecasts — they are not direct temperature readings. For final settlement and precise interpretation, consult the contract rules and the market page for the current market state.
Settlement will follow the official data source and station specified in the KALSHI contract rules for this market; consult the contract details to see which station (for example, a specified NWS/NOAA station) and the rounding/measurement conventions that will be used.
The event summary shows the market close as TBD; the market page and contract details list the precise trading close time. The result is published after the official 11:00 PM EDT observation is available and after any routine verification window defined in the contract.
Use short-range deterministic and ensemble forecasts (and real-time surface observations) to track frontal timing, cloud cover, and surface temperature trends leading up to the hour; the most relevant information is typically available in the 0–48 hour window before the event.
The contract's settlement rules specify fallback procedures for missing or ambiguous data (for example, alternative official sources, interpolation, or use of a daily summary). Review the market’s rules for the exact hierarchy and dispute resolution process.
Historical climatology provides context on typical variability for late March in NYC and can help assess how unusual an outcome would be, but short-range forecasts and real-time observations are more relevant for predicting the temperature at a specific hour.