| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 11:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 24, 2026. It matters for traders and participants who want to hedge or speculate on short-term weather risk, near-term energy demand, and event planning tied to that specific time.
Late March in New York is a transition period with large day-to-day swings possible—conditions can range from lingering cool, late-winter air masses to early-spring warmth. Long-term warming trends have shifted seasonal averages upward, but short-term synoptic patterns and coastal influences still drive most of the day-to-day variability.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which outcome bin will occur based on available forecasts and incoming data; they update as weather models, observations, and trader information change. Always check the market’s resolution rules to understand the official data source, station, and averaging method used to determine the settled temperature.
The market settles according to the official data source and station named in its resolution rules; check the market page for that specification. Many weather markets use NOAA/NWS automated surface observations at a named station and will state whether they use the instantaneous reading at 11:00 or an averaging window.
The market close time is listed on the exchange; this particular listing shows the close as TBD. Watch the market page for an announced final trading cutoff, which exchanges often set before the event’s resolution time.
Short-range deterministic and high-resolution model runs, plus real-time radar and satellite observations, typically drive the largest price moves in the last 48 hours because they improve confidence about mesoscale features (fronts, cloud cover, precipitation) that determine morning temperatures.
Use 30-year climatology and recent March trends to set a baseline expectation and plausible range, but weigh those against current synoptic-scale forecasts—specific atmospheric setup for the event date is usually more decisive than climatology alone.
Microclimates matter if the market’s resolution station is in a specific location: coastal airports, Central Park, and other sites can differ by several degrees under certain conditions. Confirm which station the market uses in its rules to know which local effects are relevant.