| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be on Mar 24, 2026 at 10:00 PM EDT. It matters for people and businesses making short-term weather-sensitive decisions (energy, outdoor events, travel) and for traders using meteorological information to form expectations.
Late March is a transitional month in the northeastern U.S., so nighttime temperatures in New York City can swing between near-wintry and mild spring conditions depending on synoptic patterns. This market sits on an exchange (KALSHI) and settles to an official observational value specified in the contract; review the market description for the precise station and reporting standard.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants and update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Use the prices as a real-time summary of market consensus while remembering they change as weather models and observations evolve.
The contract’s settlement source and station are defined in the market description on the exchange; common choices are the National Weather Service/NOAA observation for a specified NYC station (for example Central Park, LaGuardia, or JFK). Check the market page for the exact station and reporting convention used for settlement.
This market is divided into seven discrete outcome bins; each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range as labeled on the market page. Review the outcome labels on the contract to see the exact numeric boundaries for each bin.
Market close time is set by the exchange and shown on the market page; some weather contracts close shortly before the observation time to prevent trading on the final reported value, while others may remain open longer—confirm the posted closing time for this specific market.
Combine the latest deterministic and ensemble model runs (GFS, ECMWF, high-resolution mesoscale models), recent surface observations into the day, frontal timing forecasts, and local model guidance for coastal effects; update your view as model runs and observations for Mar 24 come in during the days and hours before 10:00 PM EDT.
Late March is climatologically variable in NYC, with nights capable of being either near freezing on colder setups or comfortably milder on southerly flows. Use multi-year March nighttime climatology and recent trend information for the selected reporting station to provide a baseline expectation before weighing current forecast drivers.