| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be on March 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM EDT. It matters for short-term planning (commuting, events, energy demand) and offers a real‑time way for participants to express expectations about near‑term weather conditions in NYC.
Late March is a transitional period in the northeastern U.S., when conditions can swing between lingering winter cold, spring warmth, or stormy, unsettled weather. Interannual variability is amplified by synoptic systems (cold fronts, coastal storms) and longer‑term factors such as large‑scale climate patterns and urban heat effects, so historical averages are only a starting point for forecasting this specific hour.
Market odds aggregate traders' views and new information (model runs, observations); they are best interpreted as a summary of consensus expectations that will evolve as meteorological data arrives. Use odds together with operational forecasts and recent observations to form a fuller picture of expected conditions at 10:00 AM EDT.
The market's settlement rules specify the official source and station; check the event page for that detail. If unspecified there, markets commonly rely on an official NOAA/NWS station or a designated METAR/ASOS observation for a specified NYC location and timestamp.
The event header currently lists the close as TBD; consult the market page for the official trading cutoff. Markets often close either shortly before the measurement time or at a predefined deadline listed in the event rules.
Watch changes in ensemble means and spread across models (global and high‑resolution), as well as recent high‑resolution nowcasts for the 0–48 hour window; decreasing ensemble spread and converging model solutions increase confidence in a particular outcome for 10:00 AM.
Settlement uses the observed temperature from the specified official source at 10:00 AM EDT; an unexpected storm or heat burst will be reflected directly in that observation. If data are missing or disputed, the market's published dispute and settlement procedures apply.
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation for late‑March conditions, but it should be adjusted for current synoptic forecasts, recent trends, and any ongoing climate anomalies; treat climatology as one input among model guidance and real‑time observations.