| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 11:00 PM EDT on March 23, 2026; it matters because short-term temperature outcomes affect energy demand, event planning, and local weather-sensitive activities.
The market offers seven discrete outcomes that map to temperature ranges for a single city/time snapshot. Because the event is fixed to a specific clock time and date, weather forecasts and observations converge as that time approaches; check the event page for the exact settlement source and outcome boundaries. Current trading liquidity is shown on the platform and can affect price stability.
Market odds aggregate traders’ expectations based on available forecasts and information; they will change as new model runs, observations, and news arrive. Use odds as a real-time signal of consensus but consult official meteorological observations for final answers.
The market will settle to the official data source named in the event’s rules; check the event description or settlement terms on the platform to see whether it uses a National Weather Service station (e.g., Central Park), a specific airport, or another provider.
Each of the seven outcomes corresponds to a predefined temperature range listed on the event page; consult the event details to see the precise upper and lower bounds for each outcome.
Large-scale model shifts can occur several days out, but the most meaningful refinement typically happens within 24–72 hours as short-range models and ensembles resolve frontal timing, cloud cover, and mesoscale effects.
Low or zero trading volume indicates limited liquidity and that prices may reflect few or no active wagers; with low liquidity, prices can move sharply on small trades and may be less reliable as a consensus signal.
Dispute and resolution procedures are governed by the platform’s settlement rules, which typically specify the official observing source, rounding conventions, and an arbitration process; review those rules on the event page for exact procedures.