| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 400 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 390 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 420 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 380 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 370 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 410 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 430 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which range the official U.S. oil rig count will fall into at the end of 2026; it matters because rig activity is a leading indicator of upstream oil supply and investment sentiment in the U.S. shale sector.
U.S. rig counts historically move with oil prices, drilling efficiency, and capital allocation by oil companies; the last decade saw large swings after the 2014 price crash and during COVID-19, followed by well productivity improvements that altered the link between rigs and production. Trends in shale well productivity, service costs, and producer hedging strategies will shape where the count stands by late 2026.
Market prices or odds reflect traders' aggregated expectations of which outcome will be reported at the settlement date and update as new data and news arrive; use them as a real-time signal of market consensus, not a fixed forecast.
The market will settle against the official source specified in the market rules on the event page; many markets refer to the U.S. rig count published by an industry data provider, so check the event's settlement rules to confirm the named source and the exact measurement date.
Settlement timing follows the market's published rules: typically the relevant rig-count release closest to the end-of-period date is used and settlement occurs after that official figure is published, which can be days to weeks after the reference date.
Monitor the weekly industry rig-count releases, EIA weekly petroleum inventory and production updates, drilling productivity reports, monthly rig permit and lease activity, and major company capital-spend or rig-deployment announcements, as these directly influence expectations for the year-end rig count.
Policy shifts that alter permitting, royalties, methane or flaring regulations, or leasing access change operators' costs and access to acreage, which can slow or accelerate rig additions and therefore materially influence the year-end rig count.
Yes — international shocks (geopolitical conflicts, sanctions, major supply disruptions, or coordinated OPEC+ cuts or increases) affect global prices and thus U.S. drilling economics, leading U.S. producers to adjust rig fleets even though the rigs are domestic.