| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 25 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 75 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 150 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 175 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 200 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 225 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 250 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 275 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the total number of confirmed tornadoes reported across the United States during the month of May 2026. As May is historically the peak month for tornado activity in the U.S., this contract provides a quantitative pulse on seasonal severe weather severity.
The National Weather Service (NWS) maintains the official database of tornado counts through post-storm damage surveys. Variability in May tornado counts is heavily influenced by large-scale atmospheric patterns, including the positioning of the jet stream and moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico. Because tornado reports can fluctuate based on population density and reporting technology, official counts are subject to final verification by the NWS.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of the total number of confirmed tornadoes for the specified month, aggregating diverse meteorological and statistical outlooks.
The market relies on the official records published by the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
The NWS conducts damage surveys to consolidate reports; only the number of confirmed, distinct tornado paths as defined by official NWS records will count toward this total.
No, this market is strictly limited to confirmed tornadoes occurring within the United States and its territories.
While preliminary counts are often available shortly after the month ends, the official finalized dataset may take several weeks to months as the NWS completes all ground and aerial damage assessments.
May is historically the most active month for U.S. tornadoes, and traders often use long-term historical averages as a baseline against which they weigh current climate model forecasts.