| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 25 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 75 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 150 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 175 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 200 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 225 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 250 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 275 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to forecast the total number of tornadoes in March 2026; outcomes matter because tornado frequency affects emergency planning, agricultural impacts, and short-term risk exposure for insurers and utilities.
March is a transitional month in the Northern Hemisphere when severe-weather activity often increases in certain regions (for example, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast) as the large-scale jet stream and sea-surface conditions shift. Year-to-year tornado counts are highly variable and respond to short-term atmospheric patterns (jet stream position, troughs) as well as longer-term modes like ENSO and intraseasonal oscillations. This particular contract has 11 discrete outcomes and has attracted measurable interest on the platform, but the exact settlement procedures and geographic scope are defined by the event's rules on KALSHI.
Prediction market odds aggregate trader beliefs about which outcome will ultimately be realized; they should be read as a dynamic, real-time consensus that can shift as forecasts, observations, and reports update. Prices are not guarantees but signal how market participants are weighing the factors that drive tornado occurrence in March 2026.
The event's settlement documentation on KALSHI specifies the precise geographic scope; common practice for similarly worded contracts is to use the official national dataset (for example, NOAA/Storm Prediction Center counts for the U.S.), but you should check this contract's rules page to confirm whether it is domestic, regional, or global.
Official tallies are typically compiled by meteorological agencies (for the U.S., NOAA/NWS/SPC) and may be updated from preliminary to final status over days to months as damage surveys and reports are verified; the contract's settlement clause will state which agency's final count and which cutoff date are used to settle the market.
SPC convective outlooks and mesoscale discussions, local NWS severe weather warnings and damage reports, upper-air model forecasts showing trough progression or divergent jet streaks, and model indications of anomalous moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico are the primary bulletins and indicators that traders typically watch.
Improvements in radar networks, storm-spotter programs, and social-media reporting have increased the detection of weaker or short-lived tornadoes over recent decades; when comparing counts across years, consider these changes and focus on larger patterns (outbreak frequency, regional shifts) rather than raw counts alone.
Primary sources include the NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center for watches and outlooks, local NWS forecast offices for warnings and damage survey results, national analysis centers (NCEP/NSSL) for model diagnostics, and the official event or settlement page on KALSHI for contract-specific rules and updates.