| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 25 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 75 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 150 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 175 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 200 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 225 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 250 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 275 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to forecast the official number of confirmed tornadoes that will be reported for April 2026; it matters because tornado activity affects community risk, emergency response, and insurance exposure. Market prices aggregate available forecasts and observations into a single, tradable expectation for that month.
April is climatologically one of the more active months for tornadoes in many regions, with large year-to-year variability driven by atmospheric patterns such as the jet stream position, moisture transport, and synoptic-scale storm systems. Seasonal signals (for example ENSO state or large-scale blocking) and short-term model forecasts both influence whether a given April will be quiet or outbreak-prone.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of which outcome will match the official reported tornado tally for April 2026 and will update as forecasts and observations change. Always interpret prices in light of the contract's stated resolver and time frame.
The 11 outcomes correspond to the discrete count bins or options defined on the market page; the contract will map those outcomes to specific tornado-count ranges or integers. The market resolves to the outcome that contains the official reported total for the period specified in the contract.
The platform lists the market close as TBD; trading will end at the posted close time once set. Final resolution typically occurs after the end of April once the official reporting agency publishes its monthly tornado tally—check the contract for the exact resolution timeline.
The market's resolution clause names the authoritative source to be used (common choices include NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center reports or the NCEI/Storm Events Database). Always confirm the specified resolver on the market page before trading.
Use multi-year climatology and recent April analogs as context: climatology shows large variability, so compare the current seasonal outlook and analog years rather than relying on a single past season. Also consult recent short-range model guidance for outbreak potential as April approaches.
Major shifts in model guidance that produce a persistent active storm track, strong low-level moisture return from the Gulf, clear forecasts for high instability plus strong shear (favoring supercells), or reports of a significant early-April outbreak would likely move prices. Conversely, an entrenched ridge or lack of moisture transport would push expectations lower; revisions to official confirmation practices or late reanalysis can also affect the final count.