| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 1 cut | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 6 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 7 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 8 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 9 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 10 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 11 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 12 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 13 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 14 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 15 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 16 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 17 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 18 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 19 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 20 cuts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many times the Federal Reserve will cut its policy (effective federal funds) rate during calendar year 2026. It matters because the number of cuts affects borrowing costs, financial markets, and the broader economic outlook.
Decisions on rate cuts will be driven by the Fed’s assessment of inflation, employment, and growth as it seeks to fulfill its dual mandate. Markets enter 2026 with carryover effects from prior tightening cycles and with uncertainty about how quickly inflation will converge to target, so both incoming data and Fed communications will be central to expectations.
Market prices aggregate participants’ collective expectations about the count of 2026 rate cuts and update as new information arrives; they should be read as a real-time consensus signal rather than a guaranteed outcome.
A 'rate cut' refers to an official reduction in the Federal Reserve’s target policy rate as reflected in FOMC announcements; the market’s settlement rules on the event page specify the exact source documents and timing used to count cuts.
This market offers 21 discrete outcome buckets representing different counts of rate cuts over calendar year 2026; check the market page for the exact labels and boundaries of each bucket.
The market close is listed as TBD; final settlement will occur after the relevant official Fed releases and per the market’s rulebook, with the platform announcing the settlement timeline and authoritative sources.
FOMC meeting statements, press conferences, the Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot), employment reports, CPI/PCE inflation prints, and key Fed speeches are the primary information events that typically shift expectations for rate cuts.
Treat price moves as a continuously updated consensus that reflects new data and changing risk preferences; use them alongside your own economic analysis, scenario planning, and risk management rather than as definitive forecasts.