| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before 2025 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before July 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before July 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks when the U.S. Federal Reserve will next raise its policy (federal funds) rate; the timing matters because a rate hike influences borrowing costs, asset prices, and economic forecasts. Traders express collective expectations about the timing, which update as new data and Fed communications arrive.
The market lists six mutually exclusive timing outcomes and has attracted meaningful activity (Total Volume Traded: $1,161,681); the market’s close time is currently TBD. Historically, the Fed has adjusted policy in response to inflation trends, labor market conditions, and financial stability considerations; forward guidance from the Fed and the FOMC meeting calendar are central to how participants form expectations.
Market odds reflect the cross-section of trader beliefs about when the next hike will occur and update in real time with new data and Fed signals. Use those odds as a live indicator of market expectations, but combine them with Fed communications, macro data, and official resolution rules before drawing conclusions.
It asks which of the market’s six labeled timing windows will contain the date of the Fed’s next policy rate increase; only one outcome can win and the market resolves according to Kalshi’s published resolution criteria tied to the Fed’s official announcement.
The market close is listed as TBD on the event page; Kalshi will post a specific closing time on the market page — monitor that page for updates and any change notices.
Each outcome represents a distinct, mutually exclusive timing window (for example, particular Fed meeting dates or month ranges) as labeled on the market page; the outcome whose window includes the official FOMC announcement date/time of the first rate increase will resolve as the winner under the market’s resolution rules.
FOMC statements and minutes, the Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot), the Chair’s press conferences and Congressional testimonies, and prominent Fed speeches are the primary communications that typically shift market expectations for timing.
Surprising macro prints, sudden financial stress, geopolitical crises, or major fiscal policy changes can accelerate or delay a hike and prompt rapid price moves; regardless of interim trading, Kalshi will resolve the market based on the Fed’s official announcement and the platform’s contingency/resolution rules.