| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the U.S. Senate will have confirmed a new Supreme Court justice by the market close. The outcome matters because a confirmed justice changes the Court’s composition and can influence major legal rulings for decades.
Supreme Court vacancies arise when a justice retires, resigns, dies, or becomes unable to serve; the President nominates a replacement and the Senate must complete a confirmation process. That process typically includes background reviews, Senate Judiciary Committee hearings, and a full Senate vote, with timing and intensity shaped by partisan control and the broader political calendar.
Market prices represent traders’ aggregated expectations about whether the Senate will finish the confirmation process before the event closes. Use prices as a real-time information signal about evolving news, Senate behavior, and political dynamics—not as a statement of certainty.
The President formally nominates a candidate to fill a Supreme Court vacancy; the Senate then considers that nomination through its confirmation procedures.
The process typically includes Judiciary Committee vetting and hearings, a committee vote to report the nomination, and a final Senate vote on confirmation; a completed, favorable Senate vote is the event that constitutes confirmation for this market.
Senate majority leadership controls the floor calendar; if leadership does not schedule committee markup or a full Senate vote, a nomination cannot be confirmed before the market’s close, regardless of support among individual senators.
A withdrawn or rescinded nomination typically prevents confirmation of that individual; the market outcome will depend on whether an alternative nominee is nominated and confirmed before the market closes.
Watch official White House announcements, Senate Judiciary Committee hearing schedules, public statements and whip-counts from Senate leaders, major news about the nominee’s background or legal issues, and any court filings or external crises that could delay proceedings.