| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Brown | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John E. Sununu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chris Sununu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dan Innis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which candidate will emerge as the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire; it matters because the nominee determines the Republican ticket in the general election and affects both state and national strategic calculations.
New Hampshire is known for its retail-style campaigning and an engaged primary electorate, and its Senate nomination contests can be competitive and change quickly as new information emerges. Historical patterns include strong effects from local endorsements, ground operations, and late-campaign momentum; national attention and outside spending can also shape outcomes.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations and incoming information about the contest; movements reflect how new polls, endorsements, withdrawals, fundraising, and local developments change the collective view of who will be the nominee — they are not guarantees but timely signals.
The market lists four discrete outcomes corresponding to specific candidate options (and/or an 'other' or catch‑all outcome if included); consult the market page to see the exact outcome labels and which named candidates they represent.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the event page; the winning outcome will be resolved based on the officially recognized Republican nominee as defined in the market's resolution rules (typically the nominee certified by the state party or election authority).
Withdrawals tend to redistribute support among remaining outcomes and can produce rapid price shifts; endorsements can boost a candidate's perceived viability and attract trading attention — markets often react faster than polls to these developments.
Resolution follows the market's stated rules: typically the outcome that matches the individual officially designated as the Republican nominee by the relevant New Hampshire authorities or party apparatus will be declared the winner; check the event's resolution criteria for exact procedures.
Use the market as a dynamic, real‑time aggregation of trader expectations and supplement it with polls (for vote intention), fundraising and organizational metrics (for durability), and local reporting on ground operations and endorsements; each source offers different signals and together give a fuller picture of the race.