| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Pappas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jared Sullivan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Karishma Manzur | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maggie Goodlander | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Annie Kuster | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stefany Shaheen | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which person will be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate from New Hampshire; the nominee determines the party's general‑election candidate and can affect Senate control dynamics.
New Hampshire typically selects its Senate nominee via a primary (or, less commonly, through party processes) in a state known for retail politics and an independent-minded electorate. The state's early primary calendar and small voter universe can amplify local ground game, endorsements, and debates. Incumbency and name recognition often help, but competitive primaries and upsets are part of the state's recent history.
Market prices reflect the aggregate, real-time beliefs of traders about who will be the officially certified nominee; they update as new information arrives. Treat prices as indicators that synthesize polling, news, endorsements, and other signals, not as fixed predictions.
The market will settle on the individual officially recognized as the Democratic nominee according to the market's published settlement rules, typically the person certified by New Hampshire's official election certification process or the state Democratic Party as the nominee for the relevant election cycle.
Because the closing time is TBD, settlement will occur after the nomination is officially determined and certified; consult the exchange's market description and settlement rules for the precise trigger (for example, official certification of primary results or a party's formal nomination announcement).
If a listed candidate withdraws prior to official certification, traders will likely update positions and the market will still settle on whoever is officially certified; exchanges may adjust listed outcomes, add an 'other' option, or follow their change/withdrawal policy—check the exchange's protocol for specifics.
Relevant features include New Hampshire's retail-style campaigning and small, engaged voter base, its early-primary influence on momentum, a tradition of independent-minded voters who sometimes buck national trends, and the outsized impact of local endorsements and ground operations on primary outcomes.
Watch New Hampshire-specific polling, major endorsements, shifts in fundraising and ad spending, debate and forum performances, local campaign infrastructure reports, ballot-access rulings or legal challenges, and official state or party certification announcements—any of these can materially change market expectations.