| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kiper | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tom Sherman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Deaglan McEachern | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cinde Warmington | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Donovan Fenton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Democratic nominee for governor of New Hampshire; it matters because the nominee will shape the party’s general-election strategy in a competitive state. Prediction markets aggregate real-time information and trader beliefs about that eventual nominee.
New Hampshire selects nominees through its primary process and official certification by state authorities; the identity of the Democratic nominee depends on who wins that primary or is otherwise certified as the party’s nominee. The state’s small, retail-focused electorate, early voting patterns, and local endorsements have historically had outsized influence on New Hampshire nomination contests.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations and react to new information — polling, fundraising, endorsements, debates, and campaign events. Use prices as a dynamic signal of market sentiment, but cross-check with official results and reporting when the nomination is certified.
The market will be resolved to whichever individual is officially recognized as the Democratic nominee for governor by the relevant New Hampshire authorities or by the market’s stated resolution criteria; check the market page for the exact resolution rule and the date on which outcomes will be determined.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate or label shown on the market page (for example, named candidates and sometimes an "other" option); consult the market’s outcome labels to see which candidates are included.
Exchanges typically follow a published rule set: they may update the market, suspend trading on that outcome, or resolve based on the final certified nominee; check the market’s notices and the exchange’s adjudication policy for how such cases are handled.
A closing or resolution date will be set according to the exchange schedule and the timing of official nomination events; monitor the market page and announcements for the exchange’s stated close or resolution timing correlated with New Hampshire’s official certification process.
Watch granular New Hampshire indicators: late-breaking local polls, town-hall and retail campaigning performance, endorsements from state legislators and local party leaders, county-level turnout patterns, and any events or disclosures that materially alter a candidate’s viability.