| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Jensen | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kristin Robbins | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kendall Qualls | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jim Schultz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chris Madel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mike Lindell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lisa Demuth | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brad Kohler | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Republican Party nominee for Minnesota governor in the upcoming gubernatorial cycle. The outcome matters because the nominee shapes the general election matchup, party messaging, and campaign resource allocation.
Minnesota’s nominee process typically involves both party activity (endorsements at conventions) and an official statewide primary; endorsements can influence but do not automatically determine the nominee. Historically the state has swung between parties in statewide races, and nomination contests are shaped by regional coalitions, ideology within the party, and national political conditions.
Prediction market prices aggregate traders’ assessments of who will be the officially recognized Republican nominee based on campaign developments, polling, endorsements, and fundraising; treat prices as real-time signals of market sentiment rather than definitive forecasts.
Settlement follows the market operator’s rules and uses the officially recognized Republican nominee as defined for the event — typically the candidate certified by the state’s official results or the party’s official nomination process; consult the market rules for the specific settlement trigger.
A state party endorsement is influential and can move market prices, but it is not necessarily the same as the official nomination; the market resolves to the party’s officially recognized nominee as specified in the event’s settlement criteria, which may be the primary winner or the party-certified nominee.
Key drivers include candidate withdrawals or entries, major endorsements, shifts in fundraising totals, credible polling changes among GOP voters, debate/showcase performances, and any legal or personal controversies affecting candidates.
An incumbent seeking a second term typically consolidates party support and can narrow the field, often making markets more stable; if an incumbent declines to run, markets usually widen as multiple candidates enter and competition increases.
Official sources include the Minnesota Secretary of State’s certified election results and official statements from the Minnesota Republican Party; the market’s own rules and settlement page will state which official designation is used for resolution.