| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Melisa López Franzen | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Angie Craig | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Keith Ellison | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Melissa Hortman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ilhan Omar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jacob Frey | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Betty McCollum | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Steve Simon | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| David Wellstone | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for U.S. Senate in Minnesota; it matters because the nominee determines the party’s contender in the general election and shapes strategic decisions by voters, donors, and other campaigns.
Minnesota’s Democratic nominee is chosen through the party’s nomination process, typically involving an endorsement process and a statewide primary or convention followed by state certification. Historical contests in Minnesota have seen endorsements, name recognition, fundraising, and grassroots organization influence who wins the nomination. The broader national political environment and any open-seat dynamics can also change the competitive landscape rapidly.
Market prices aggregate traders’ expectations and update as new information arrives; they are a real-time signal of perceived likelihood rather than a definitive forecast. Use market movements alongside polls, fundraising reports, and local news to form a fuller view of the race.
It will resolve when the market operator determines the official Democratic (DFL) nominee according to the exchange’s resolution rules, typically after the party’s nominee is formally certified by whatever body the market specifies (state certification or official primary result). Check the market’s specific rules for the exact resolution trigger and any deadlines.
Each outcome corresponds to a named individual; an outcome wins if that person is the officially recognized Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Minnesota under the market’s published resolution criteria. If the identity of the nominee is legally or procedurally ambiguous, the exchange’s dispute and resolution procedures will apply.
Resolution depends on timing and the market’s rules: if a withdrawal occurs after the official nomination, the market may still settle on the person who was formally nominated; if a replacement occurs prior to official certification, the exchange will follow its stated protocol for replacements or ambiguous outcomes. Review the market’s settlement rules for specifics.
No—state convention endorsements are influential but typically nonbinding; the market resolves to the officially nominated candidate, which usually depends on the primary result or formal certification rather than the endorsement alone.
Watch Minnesota-specific polling for the Democratic primary, FEC fundraising reports for Senate candidates, DFL convention schedules and endorsement announcements, major campaign staffing changes, and local news about candidate viability or controversies—any of these can materially shift market expectations.