| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Walz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Amy Klobuchar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bill Gates Jr. | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Keith Ellison | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Steve Simon | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jacob Frey | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Melvin Carter | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bobby Joe Champion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Erin Murphy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dean Phillips | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Democratic–Farmer–Labor (DFL) Party nominee for Minnesota governor in the upcoming election cycle. The nominee determines the Democratic ticket for the statewide general election and affects campaign strategy, fundraising, and party messaging.
Minnesota’s Democratic Party operates through the DFL; nominees are typically determined by a combination of the party endorsement process and a state primary open to certified candidates. Statewide dynamics — including the incumbent’s status, metro-suburban versus rural voting patterns, and local issues such as the economy, health care, and education — shape the contest.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of traders about who will be the DFL nominee and update as new information arrives (endorsements, poll results, fundraising, withdrawals). Use prices as a real-time summary of changing information rather than fixed predictions.
It will resolve to the individual who is officially recognized as the Democratic (DFL) nominee for governor of Minnesota for the relevant election cycle, as certified by the appropriate state election authorities after the party and primary processes conclude.
The market resolves when the nominee has been officially determined and certified under Minnesota’s nomination procedures—typically after the DFL endorsement process and the state primary or after official certification of the party’s chosen nominee; timing depends on when those processes are completed.
A party endorsement is a powerful signal that can shift media coverage, donor behavior, and activist support, but it is not always binding; the market responds to both endorsements and subsequent primary voter preferences, which ultimately decide the nominee if multiple certified candidates remain.
Yes—if the incumbent is a Democrat and either seeks reelection or otherwise becomes the party’s nominee, they would be the resolving outcome; inclusion in the market depends on which candidates are listed by the market operator.
Major movers include official campaign announcements or withdrawals, statewide polling among Democratic voters, large fundraising hauls or cash-on-hand reports, high-profile endorsements or party convention developments, debates or gaffes, and legal or certification actions by election officials.