| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before June 1, 2026 | 49% | 47¢ | 49¢ | — | $52K | Trade → |
| Before April 1, 2026 | 20% | 14¢ | 17¢ | — | $50K | Trade → |
| Before March 1, 2026 | 3% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $48K | Resolved |
| Before May 1, 2026 | 41% | 41¢ | 43¢ | — | $39K | Trade → |
| Before September 1, 2026 | 67% | 65¢ | 66¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Before February 1, 2026 | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $20K | Resolved |
This market asks whether Miguel Díaz-Canel will be out of the office(s) specified by the market within its resolution window. Leadership changes in Cuba matter for domestic policy, economic management, and international relations.
Miguel Díaz-Canel has been the island's top leader since he succeeded the Castro-era leadership and has held the principal state and party roles that concentrate decision-making. Cuba's political system vests authority in the Communist Party and senior institutions, so leadership changes typically occur through elite processes rather than competitive multiparty elections.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about whether the defined exit event will occur; price movements reflect new information, shifts in elite behavior, or changing interpretations of on-the-ground events. Always consult the market's rules to understand which specific offices and events count for resolution.
The market asks whether Díaz-Canel will be out as defined in the market's description and rules. 'Out' typically refers to removal from the specific office(s) listed—through resignation, formal removal, incapacitation, or death—but you must read the event's official resolution criteria for the precise definition.
Formal authority lies with party and state institutions such as the Communist Party leadership and the National Assembly, and influential roles include senior military and security officials; in practice, changes are driven by elite negotiations and party decisions rather than open electoral competition.
Public announcements of resignation or death, formal votes or appointments at party congresses or National Assembly sessions, credible reports of forced removal or incapacitation, and major on-the-ground developments (large-scale protests or elite defections) would all be drivers of resolution or sharp price moves.
Sustained large-scale unrest or severe economic deterioration increases political pressure and can make elite-managed transitions more likely; sanctions and diplomatic isolation intensify economic strain but typically interact with internal elite dynamics to determine whether leadership changes occur.
Resolution depends on the market's specified office(s). If the event requires being out of a particular office, losing a different title may not meet the resolution criteria—consult the market's precise definitions and settlement rules to determine how partial changes are handled.