| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets participants trade on the official Mexico unemployment rate for February 2026. The outcome matters because that monthly unemployment reading is a timely signal of labor-market health and influences economic policy, market sentiment, and business planning.
Mexico’s official monthly unemployment rate is produced by INEGI’s household survey (ENOE/ENE) and has been watched closely during the post-pandemic recovery, manufacturing cycles, and shifts in services and tourism activity. The Mexican labor market has a large informal sector and is sensitive to external demand (especially from the U.S.), domestic monetary and fiscal policy, and seasonal hiring patterns.
Prediction-market prices reflect the evolving consensus view of traders as new data and news arrive; they should be used as a real-time complement to official statistics and other economic indicators rather than a substitute for the INEGI release.
Settlement is based on the official unemployment rate as published by Mexico’s INEGI in its monthly employment release; consult the contract terms for any specification about seasonally adjusted versus unadjusted series.
The market’s close is determined by the exchange and may occur before the INEGI publication; the event will ultimately settle to the official INEGI figure once it is released—check the market page for the exact closing time and settlement rules.
If the contract specifies a seasonally adjusted (or unadjusted) series, settlement follows that specific INEGI series; any post-publication revisions handled according to the exchange’s settlement policy—review the market’s rulebook to see which version of the statistic is used.
Large changes could stem from hiring or layoffs in key sectors (manufacturing, tourism, agriculture), shifts in export demand, significant policy announcements affecting firms or workers, or atypical seasonal events and weather that alter employment patterns.
Monitor labor-force participation, wage and payroll registrations (IMSS), sectoral employment releases, industrial production, PMI readings, remittance flows, and relevant monthly GDP or trade data to put the unemployment number in context.