| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $1.7 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $1.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $1.9 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.1 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.3 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.5 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.7 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which nominal gross domestic product (GDP) Mexico will record for the calendar year 2026. The outcome matters because nominal GDP is a headline measure of economy size used by investors, policymakers, and credit analysts when assessing fiscal space and debt ratios.
Mexico's nominal GDP in 2026 will reflect a combination of real economic activity and the inflation environment that year, influenced by trade with the United States, energy revenues, and domestic policy choices. Recent years have featured recovery from the pandemic, commodity-price sensitivity, and periodic exchange-rate and inflation pressures; those structural and cyclical dynamics shape expectations for the 2026 nominal figure.
Market prices for each outcome represent the collective, continuously updated expectation of which nominal-GDP bin will be realized, and they move as participants incorporate new data and news. Treat quoted odds as a snapshot of market consensus rather than a fixed forecast—check the market page for live updates and the settlement rules for definitive information.
Settlement normally relies on the official national accounts figure designated in the market rules—typically Mexico's national statistics agency (INEGI) or the source specified on the event page; always check the market's settlement specification for the authoritative source.
The market will settle after the official 2026 nominal GDP figure is published by the designated statistical authority; the close date is TBD because official release calendars and the market operator's settlement schedule may not be finalized until authorities publish their release timetable.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific nominal-GDP range or bin and a stated currency/unit; the market event page lists the 12 outcome labels and their boundaries—refer to that listing for exact numeric ranges and the currency used for settlement.
Major drivers include unexpectedly strong or weak quarterly GDP releases, large swings in oil prices or energy output, sharp peso depreciation or appreciation, a significant change in U.S. demand, large fiscal measures or one-off government receipts, and revisions to national-account methods or historical data.
Preliminary annual GDP figures are often revised; the market will settle on the source and release specified in the rules, which may be a first release or a later official number. For real-time insight, track quarterly and high-frequency indicators (industrial production, trade, consumption, remittances) while remembering that final settled outcome may reflect subsequent revisions.