| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Immune / Immunity | 97% | 81¢ | 97¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| China / Chinese | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| ICE / DHS | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| India / Indian | 91% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 14th Amendment | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Fraud | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Mexico / Mexican | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Border | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Supreme Court | 97% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Student | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Anchor Baby | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Biden | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Loophole | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $950 | Trade → |
| Event does not qualify | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $888 | Trade → |
| Kristi / Noem | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $182 | Trade → |
This market tracks whether witnesses will be mentioned during the hearing titled "Protecting American Citizenship." It matters because mentions of witnesses can signal the hearing's focus, the strength of testimonial evidence, and potential political or legal consequences.
Hearings on citizenship and immigration-related topics have historically drawn a mix of expert witnesses, government officials, and affected individuals; the presence and prominence of witnesses can shape both procedural outcomes and public attention. Committee rules, subpoena authority, and negotiations between majority and minority parties determine whether witnesses participate and how prominently they are discussed. Media coverage and official transcripts from the hearing are typically the primary sources used to assess what was mentioned and by whom.
Market prices reflect how participants collectively expect the event to unfold and will move as new information (witness lists, subpoenas, hearings schedule, or public statements) emerges. Use prices as a real-time signal of changing expectations rather than fixed forecasts.
A "mention" typically refers to explicit references to witnesses by name or role in the hearing record — including opening statements, questioning, or the official transcript — as defined by the market's resolution rules.
The market close is listed as TBD; operators generally set a close time tied to the hearing schedule or shortly after official transcripts/webcasts are available so that mentions can be verified for resolution.
Key drivers include the committee chair and leadership who set the agenda, the ranking member and minority negotiators, announced witnesses or potential subpoena recipients, and advocacy groups pushing for public testimony.
Verification typically relies on official hearing transcripts, committee webcast recordings, and the market's stated source hierarchy; disputes are resolved according to the market operator's documented resolution policy.
Past hearings on citizenship issues often feature witness panels for testimony in oversight or policy-focused sessions, while procedural or purely legislative hearings may feature fewer or no external witnesses; format and political stakes in this hearing will largely determine which pattern applies.