| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAVE Act / Save America Act | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $36K | Trade → |
| Hormuz | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $34K | Trade → |
| Khamenei / Son | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| Fake News | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Event does not qualify | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Tariff | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Epic Fury | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Inflation | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Democrat | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Biden | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Hottest | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Draft / Drafted | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Kurd / Kurdish | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Drone | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| America First | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Oil | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Israel / Israeli | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Peace through strength | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Yemen / Houthi | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Iran | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Ballroom | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Marco / Rubio | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks whether Donald Trump will hold a publicly observable news conference during the time window defined by the contract. Outcomes matter because a formal news conference can create immediate, widely reported developments that influence public attention and other political markets.
Historically, Trump has used public news conferences at key moments—announcing campaign plans, responding to legal developments, or reacting to breaking stories. Whether and when he holds a news conference is shaped by campaign strategy, legal and policy events, and media interest.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective assessment of whether a qualifying news conference will occur before the contract closes; they update as new information (scheduling announcements, legal filings, or breaking events) becomes available, and should be read as an information signal rather than a definitive prediction.
A qualifying news conference is typically a public event where Trump speaks and takes questions from reporters in a forum recorded or widely reported by major media or broadcast outlets; the precise eligibility criteria for settlement are set by the contract rules, so consult those rules for the definitive standard.
'Closes: TBD' means the contract’s trading window and final cutoff have not yet been fixed; the exchange will announce a close time and any relevant cutoff for considering events, and only news conferences occurring before that announced close will be eligible for settlement.
Rallies and interviews are usually distinct from a news conference; markets generally require a setting where reporters ask questions and the event is presented as a press conference—ambiguous cases are resolved according to the event’s public record and the contract’s settlement criteria.
Settlement typically relies on widely accessible primary evidence such as live video, transcripts, or reports from established national or international news organizations; the contract’s rules identify acceptable sources and the adjudication process for disputes.
Watch official campaign calendars and social channels for announcements, major court or legal filings, breaking political or national security stories, and comments from campaign spokespeople or allied officials—these often signal an increased likelihood of a formal press event.