| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $228K | Trade → |
| America First | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $116K | Trade → |
| Trump (5+ times) | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $79K | Trade → |
| Democrat | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| Hormuz | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Fake News | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| Midnight Hammer | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Submarine | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Constitution / Constitutional | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Saudi | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| F-15 / F-15E | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Oil | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Event does not qualify | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Drone | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Iraq | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Hezbollah | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Israel / Israeli | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Civilian | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks whether Pete Hegseth will hold a press conference specifically about an initiative referred to as "Operation Fury." That outcome matters because a press conference would be a public, time-stamped signal of intent, priorities, or new information that could shift media coverage and public reaction.
Pete Hegseth is a public media figure and former military officer who frequently participates in political and veterans-related commentary; press conferences are a common mechanism for public figures to announce initiatives or respond to developments. "Operation Fury" in this market is the named initiative or operation tied to him; whether and how it is promoted or defended in public is shaped by organizational readiness, media interest, and the surrounding news cycle.
Market prices reflect the collective view of traders about whether this specific, documented event will occur and evolve as participants receive new information. Use prices as a dynamic indicator of how the market is interpreting available evidence and risk, not as definitive proof that an event will (or will not) happen.
For this market to resolve as a 'yes' outcome, there must be a documented, public event in which Pete Hegseth personally addresses the press about Operation Fury in a format recognizable as a press conference (on-camera or live stream with reporters or a formal statement and opportunity for questions), and that event must be verifiable through credible media coverage, an official video, or an authoritative release that explicitly labels it a press conference.
Yes—virtual or livestreamed events can qualify if they are structured and promoted as a press conference (with real-time presentation to reporters, Q&A or clear statement of purpose) and are documented by credible sources or official channels that make the nature of the event clear.
No. The market is specific to Pete Hegseth holding the press conference. Statements by spokespeople or third parties about Operation Fury do not meet the event definition unless Hegseth himself appears and speaks in the documented press event.
Acceptable evidence includes video or live-stream recordings from credible outlets or verified accounts, contemporaneous reporting by established media organizations describing the event as a press conference, or an official release from the organizing body that includes clear documentation (video, transcript, or detailed coverage) showing Hegseth speaking about Operation Fury.
Closure and settlement timing are determined by the exchange operator. Traders should monitor the market page for updates on the close time and review the market's resolution rules; the market will settle according to those rules once the operator sets a close or resolves the event based on documented evidence.