| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Learing | 40% | 50¢ | 76¢ | — | $126 | Trade → |
| Trump | 90% | 35¢ | 83¢ | — | $53 | Trade → |
| Gavin / Newsom | 76% | 26¢ | 75¢ | — | $33 | Trade → |
| Iran | 80% | 35¢ | 78¢ | — | $31 | Trade → |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | 91% | 51¢ | 88¢ | — | $22 | Trade → |
| Billion | 91% | 14¢ | 73¢ | — | $21 | Trade → |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | 91% | 26¢ | 90¢ | — | $20 | Trade → |
| Terrorism / Terrorist | 80% | 31¢ | 80¢ | — | $18 | Trade → |
| Biden | 80% | 80¢ | 87¢ | — | $5 | Trade → |
| Walz | 75% | 75¢ | 89¢ | — | $4 | Trade → |
| Israel / Israeli | 15% | 17¢ | 85¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 19¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Nick Shirley will be mentioned on Fox News' late-night program Gutfeld!. Mentions on high-profile shows can meaningfully raise a person's public visibility and signal shifting media attention.
Gutfeld! is a recurring opinion-entertainment program on Fox News with a large, engaged audience; its segments and hosts can create rapid attention spikes for people or topics they discuss. Nick Shirley's baseline visibility and any contemporaneous news involving him will interact with the show's editorial choices to determine the likelihood of a mention.
Market prices reflect traders' collective assessment of whether an on-air mention will occur by the market's settlement date; they update as new information (schedules, breaking news, previews) becomes available. Treat these prices as real-time signals of market sentiment rather than definitive predictions.
A 'mention' typically means a clear on-air reference to Nick Shirley during the Gutfeld! broadcast or an official Gutfeld! segment; ambiguous, off-air, or third-party references may be excluded—consult the market's settlement rules for the definitive standard.
Settlement usually considers whether the broadcast clearly refers to the same individual (including common aliases or obvious misspellings); the market's official dispute and verification procedures spell out how equivocal cases are handled.
Verification commonly uses the program's broadcast video, official transcripts, and posted clips from Fox News or the show's channels; check the event's rules page for the exact sources the operator accepts.
If the close is TBD, settlement will occur according to the operator's announced schedule or after the period they designate; monitor the event page for updates and any official communications about the market's closing window.
Past mentions provide context about how often the show covers the individual and under what circumstances, but traders should weight recent news, scheduled appearances, and current editorial signals more heavily since media attention can change quickly.