| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event does not qualify | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Working Class / Middle Class | 49% | 42¢ | 49¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Biden | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Sacrifice / Sacrificed / Sacrificing | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Democrat | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| America First | 13% | 12¢ | 29¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Inflation | 50% | 45¢ | 86¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| American Dream | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Israel / Israeli | 24% | 8¢ | 21¢ | — | $546 | Trade → |
| Illegal Alien | 23% | 17¢ | 54¢ | — | $514 | Trade → |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | 23% | 6¢ | 23¢ | — | $131 | Trade → |
| Oil | 47% | 3¢ | 21¢ | — | $84 | Trade → |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 85% | 20¢ | 82¢ | — | $57 | Trade → |
| Epic Fury | 6% | 5¢ | 17¢ | — | $51 | Trade → |
| Tariff | 2% | 2¢ | 79¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
| Fraud | 91% | 11¢ | 69¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 0% | 6¢ | 89¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New York | 0% | 6¢ | 90¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trillion | 0% | 3¢ | 89¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ID / Identification | 0% | 6¢ | 88¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Election | 0% | 3¢ | 89¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market tracks whether U.S. Senator JD Vance will be mentioned by the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF). It matters because mentions by major labor unions can signal political alignment, outreach success, or emerging campaign dynamics.
The IAFF is a nationwide union representing professional firefighters and often engages in political endorsements, public statements, and communications about candidates and policy. JD Vance is a national political figure whose positions on public safety, labor policy, and government funding could prompt attention from firefighter leadership or rank-and-file members. Mentions can occur in many contexts — speeches, press releases, official endorsements, social media, or news coverage referencing IAFF materials.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about whether and how the IAFF will mention JD Vance; they update as new information (statements, events, endorsements, or media coverage) becomes available. Use the market as a real-time signal of changing attention rather than a definitive measure of causation.
A 'mention' is any public instance where the International Association of Fire Fighters — through official national-level communications, local IAFF affiliates acting under IAFF labels, IAFF social media accounts, or official IAFF representatives speaking in their capacity as union officials — names JD Vance. Generic third-party media references to IAFF activity that do not quote or cite the IAFF do not qualify.
The market operator (KALSHI) sets adjudication rules; typically they rely on verifiable public records such as IAFF press releases, official IAFF social posts, statements from IAFF national officers, or documented affiliate communications that explicitly identify the IAFF. Traders should consult the market’s specific rules and adjudication criteria for final determinations.
With 21 outcomes, the market likely specifies multiple mutually exclusive scenarios (for example, different timing windows, different IAFF channels, or various types of mentions). Check the market description for how each outcome is defined so you understand which exact scenario each outcome represents.
A 'Closes: TBD' timeline means the market remains open until a closing or resolution period is specified; traders should monitor updates because the operator may set a final close date or resolution window in response to unfolding events. Until the market closes, outcomes can change as new information arrives.
Triggers include formal endorsement processes, candidate appearances at union events, votes or legislative activity affecting firefighter interests, widely publicized disputes over public safety policy, or coordinated labor communications. Monitoring IAFF official channels and major news outlets covering labor and public safety increases the chance of spotting a mention early.