| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ocean | 95% | 90¢ | 93¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Strategy / Strategic | 88% | 81¢ | 87¢ | — | $549 | Trade → |
| Loyal / Loyalty | 60% | 57¢ | 68¢ | — | $469 | Trade → |
| Shelter | 48% | 42¢ | 48¢ | — | $368 | Trade → |
| Threat | 67% | 59¢ | 60¢ | — | $326 | Trade → |
| Big Move | 35% | 31¢ | 33¢ | — | $249 | Trade → |
| Drama | 19% | 16¢ | 19¢ | — | $244 | Trade → |
| Alliance | 81% | 83¢ | 91¢ | — | $188 | Trade → |
| Relationship | 60% | 58¢ | 60¢ | — | $121 | Trade → |
| Million | 48% | 40¢ | 43¢ | — | $116 | Trade → |
| Clue | 53% | 38¢ | 52¢ | — | $81 | Trade → |
| Target | 77% | 72¢ | 86¢ | — | $67 | Trade → |
| Betray / Betrayed / Betrayal | 34% | 17¢ | 33¢ | — | $53 | Trade → |
| Bond / Bonded / Bonding | 54% | 52¢ | 54¢ | — | $40 | Trade → |
| Blood / Bloody | 35% | 14¢ | 34¢ | — | $13 | Trade → |
| Snake | 11% | 13¢ | 18¢ | — | $10 | Trade → |
This market asks which contestants are mentioned during Survivor Episode 3; mentions are a proxy for who the episode highlights and can signal narrative focus or future importance. That matters to traders because on‑air mentions are stable, observable events that settle the market.
Survivor editing and storytelling concentrate attention on a subset of players each episode through confessional interviews, group scenes, and commentary; early episodes often introduce alliances and key conflicts that determine who gets mentioned. Producers’ narrative choices, challenge outcomes, and tribal councils drive which names surface in episode dialogue and captions.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s assessment of which contestants will be mentioned in Episode 3 and update as new information (previews, early edits, or leaks) arrives. Treat prices as a dynamic signal, not a guaranteed prediction, and verify resolution criteria before trading.
A mention generally means the contestant’s name is spoken or shown (audible name or on‑screen caption/graphic) during the official Episode 3 broadcast or its official streaming equivalent; visual appearances without name identification typically do not count.
Resolution typically occurs after Episode 3 has aired and the exchange publishes a resolution time; traders should monitor the market page for the official resolution announcement and any posted adjudication rules.
If the episode includes the clip within its official broadcast and the contestant’s name is spoken or displayed during that segment, it counts as a mention; whether reused archival audio without naming qualifies depends on whether the name is present in the aired content.
No — mentions are settled based on the content of the officially aired Episode 3 itself; external social media, interviews, or promos outside the episode are not counted unless explicitly included in the episode.
Yes — contestants emphasized in earlier episodes, such as those receiving multiple confessionals or central screen time, are more likely to be mentioned again, but shifts in storyline, challenge outcomes, or editing choices between episodes can change that trajectory.