| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
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| Epstein | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Warner | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Will Smith | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hulu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Timothée / Chalamet | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Netflix | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Podcast / Podcaster | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hollywood | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marty Supreme | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Leo / DiCaprio | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iran | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ICE / Border | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks whether Conan O'Brien will be publicly identified as the host of the Academy Awards (the Oscars) in a way that satisfies the market's settlement rules. It matters because hosting announcements are high‑profile signals about industry decisions and celebrity branding that can shift media narratives and related markets.
Conan O'Brien is a long‑time late‑night host and comedian with experience in live television and awards‑show appearances; past Oscars hosts have ranged from comedians to actors and presenters. Speculation about Oscar hosts typically comes from industry insiders, trade outlet reporting, talent representatives, or official Academy communications, and markets update as new reports or official announcements appear.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s aggregated belief about whether an authoritative public statement or equivalent reporting will occur that meets the event’s settlement criteria; they update as new information emerges but are not guarantees of outcome. Final determination of whether a mention qualifies follows the exchange’s published event resolution rules and cited sources.
A qualifying mention is a verifiable public statement or report that the Academy or similarly authoritative source (or widely accepted trade reporting) states Conan O'Brien will host the Oscars, as interpreted under the market’s settlement rules. Mere speculation, jokes, or informal social‑media rumors typically do not qualify unless reported as fact by authoritative sources specified by the exchange.
The exchange’s official resolution team adjudicates whether the published evidence meets the event’s criteria, using the exchange’s event rules and the set of sources it designates for verification; market participants should consult those rules for details on evidence hierarchy and dispute procedures.
Whether co‑hosting or a guest presenting role counts depends on the market’s precise outcome wording and the exchange’s interpretation—if authoritative announcements describe him as a host or co‑host in language that fits the event definition, it is likely to qualify; isolated guest appearances or presenting single awards typically would not.
A TBD close date means the market remains open until the exchange sets a cutoff; traders should monitor the exchange for a defined close and the official settlement window because announcements made after closure may not affect this market’s outcome.
Primary movers are official Academy announcements, confirmed statements from Conan or his representatives, exclusive industry trade reports citing insiders or contracts, and clear scheduling confirmations that make hosting feasible; contradictory reports or denials from authoritative parties also move the market.