| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ At least 5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 7 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 8 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| At least 9 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 12 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 15 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which type of major political news story will break during March 2026; it matters because headline events can shift policy expectations, markets, and public debate quickly.
March 2026 falls inside an active political calendar in many countries, with scheduled votes, court dockets, and diplomatic events that can generate headline-making developments. Historically, late-winter and early-spring periods often produce high-impact stories from elections, legal rulings, executive actions, or sudden international incidents.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated judgments about which category of story is most likely to dominate headlines in March 2026 and will move as new information arrives. Because the market is tied to a calendar month and discrete outcomes, expect prices to respond sharply to breaking signals and to the market’s settlement definitions.
Settlement depends on the market’s published outcome definitions and official settlement source; typically, a "major news story" is one that receives prominent coverage from established national or international outlets or prompts official responses. Traders should read the market rules and the listed settlement source to see how the outcome categories are applied.
The market follows the contract’s specified time zone and cutoff for March 31 (or the exchange’s official settlement timestamp). Check the market’s documentation to confirm which timestamp the exchange will use for determining whether an item occurred in March 2026.
That depends on the market design: some markets use mutually exclusive, single-winner outcomes while others allow multiple outcomes or hierarchical settlement. Consult the market’s outcome descriptions and settlement rules to know whether more than one outcome can resolve.
Key actors include national executives and legislatures, supreme or appellate courts, major opposition parties, prominent corporations and CEOs, international governments or alliances, and investigative journalists or whistleblowers whose reporting can prompt official action.
Watch official calendars for elections and primaries, high‑court oral arguments and rulings, budget or appropriations deadlines, international summits and diplomatic visits, announced investigations or hearings, and major economic releases or corporate reporting dates—any of which can produce politically significant headlines.