| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Golden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Troy Jackson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Janet Mills | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dan Kleban | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chellie Pingree | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jordan Wood | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Graham Platner | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks who will be the Maine Democratic Party's nominee for U.S. Senate; the nominee will shape the general election matchup and affect Senate control dynamics. It matters to voters, activists, and bettors because the primary outcome determines who represents Democrats on the fall ballot.
Maine's political landscape includes a mix of coastal and rural communities, with a history of electing Republicans, Democrats, and independents; control of a Senate seat there can hinge on turnout and independent voters. This market lists seven outcomes and has attracted substantial trading volume, reflecting multiple active campaigns and real-time information flows into the race.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of participants based on available information (polls, endorsements, fundraising, news) and update as new data arrives; they are not guarantees but indicators of market sentiment and relative likelihoods. Watch prices move around key events (debates, primary voting rounds, certifications) rather than treating any single quote as definitive.
Each outcome represents a specific named candidate (or an option like 'other' if present) and will resolve to the candidate who is officially recognized as the Democratic nominee by the applicable certification process for the primary.
The market's close is listed as TBD; settlement typically occurs after the primary concludes and the nominee is officially certified by state election authorities or the party in accordance with the market's settlement rules.
If ranked-choice or a runoff is used, initial vote leaders may not become the nominee after transfers; market prices can move through multiple rounds as transfers and elimination patterns become clearer, so follow round-by-round results and official tallies.
High-profile endorsements, strong debate performances, and large fundraising hauls tend to change perceptions of electability and trigger rapid price shifts; traders often react quickly to these discrete events, which can be seen as spikes in volume or price movement.
Monitor official candidate filings/withdrawals, primary polling, reported vote counts on election night (and any ranked-choice rounds if applicable), major endorsements, fundraising reports, local news on key Maine issues, and certification notices from state election authorities.