| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26° to 27° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official lowest temperature recorded in Washington, D.C., on April 21, 2026. It allows participants to hedge against or speculate on spring weather volatility in the nation's capital.
Washington, D.C. experiences significant temperature variability in late April as the region transitions from spring to early summer. Historical weather data provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) serves as the primary benchmark for verifying the temperature at official reporting stations like Reagan National Airport.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of weather patterns on that specific date; lower or higher contract prices indicate market sentiment toward cooler or warmer temperature ranges.
The market relies on the official temperature data published by the National Weather Service (NWS) for the Washington, D.C. area, specifically the recorded minimum at the designated official observation station.
The lowest temperature is defined as the minimum ambient air temperature recorded over the 24-hour period of April 21, 2026, based on the official NWS daily summary.
Extreme weather events are still counted; the official NWS recorded minimum will be the final authority, regardless of whether the temperature is significantly above or below historical norms.
Weather conditions can vary significantly between the D.C. urban core, the suburbs, and the surrounding rural areas; using a single official station ensures a standardized and verifiable outcome.
No, this market tracks the actual recorded ambient air temperature, not wind chill, heat index, or 'feels like' metrics.