| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded at the primary reporting station in Seattle, Washington, on April 20, 2026. It serves as a benchmark for local climate variability and meteorological data tracking in the Pacific Northwest.
April in Seattle is characterized by the transition from the wet winter season to milder spring conditions, often featuring volatile morning lows influenced by Puget Sound's marine layer. Historical data for this period shows a typical temperature range, though shifts in atmospheric pressure systems and regional weather patterns can lead to deviations from the seasonal norm. Participants often analyze long-range weather models and historical climate averages to gauge potential outcomes.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of traders regarding the most likely temperature range for that specific date. These values aggregate meteorological insights and historical weather trends into a single predictive estimate.
The market utilizes official data reported by the National Weather Service for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA).
The market relies on the official, finalized climatological data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
No, this market tracks the actual air temperature, not the 'feels-like' temperature or wind chill index.
Yes, the daily minimum temperature is defined as the lowest temperature recorded during the 24-hour period of April 20, 2026, typically measured from midnight to midnight local time.
Trading remains open until the market closes, which is set to occur shortly before the event date to allow for the most current meteorological data to be priced in.