| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the daily minimum temperature recorded in San Francisco on April 7, 2026. These outcomes provide a financial instrument for hedging against or speculating on specific localized weather conditions.
San Francisco weather in early April is typically moderated by the Pacific Ocean, keeping temperatures relatively consistent. However, regional climate patterns such as El Niño or La Niña, combined with localized fog and coastal breezes, can create significant deviations from historical averages during the spring transition period.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of weather outcomes, reflecting current meteorological forecasts and historical climate data as the date approaches.
The market utilizes official records from the NWS-designated primary station for San Francisco, typically located at San Francisco International Airport (SFO).
The lowest temperature is the single minimum value recorded during the 24-hour period of April 7, 2026, usually occurring just before sunrise.
The marine layer and cold ocean currents generally stabilize San Francisco's temperatures, acting as a thermal buffer that prevents extreme daily fluctuations.
The market relies on official government reporting; only a total failure or lack of data from the official source would trigger special settlement procedures as defined by exchange rules.
Yes, the measurement period is based on the local calendar day for Pacific Time (PT) in San Francisco.