| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the daily minimum temperature recorded in San Francisco on April 21, 2026. It serves as a benchmark for localized weather volatility and climate variability in a coastal Mediterranean climate.
San Francisco’s weather is heavily influenced by the Pacific Ocean and the California Current, which often induce the 'marine layer' effect, keeping temperatures relatively moderate. Historical records for late April typically show stable spring conditions, though unexpected atmospheric pressure shifts can occasionally lead to unseasonable cold or heat spikes. This market captures the intersection of historical meteorological averages and short-term weather forecasting models.
Market prices reflect the collective anticipation of how current long-range climate trends and meteorological patterns will manifest on the specific date of April 21, 2026.
The official result will be derived from data provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) or their designated official reporting station for San Francisco.
Yes, official measurements are taken at specific locations, such as the San Francisco International Airport, which may differ from temperatures in downtown or coastal neighborhoods.
Late April is a transition period for Northern California; while generally mild, it sits between winter's end and the arrival of the coastal fog season, leading to a range of potential temperature outcomes.
Yes, localized pressure systems or unusual wind patterns can cause the daily minimum to fluctuate well outside of the typical historical average for that date.
This market relies on the official reported daily minimum temperature provided by the source, regardless of retrospective adjustments or corrections issued after the fact.