| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded in San Francisco on April 20, 2026. Monitoring localized temperature fluctuations is essential for understanding microclimate volatility and utility demand patterns in coastal urban environments.
San Francisco's climate is heavily influenced by the Pacific Ocean and the California Current, leading to relatively stable but cooling marine layers. Historical data for mid-April typically shows moderate temperatures, though anomalous weather patterns, such as shifts in the jet stream or unusual fog density, can cause significant deviations. Analysts often look at long-range climate models and historical meteorological records to assess the likelihood of extreme outliers.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of future weather outcomes based on current climate trends and historical climatological data. Participants adjust their positions as new long-range forecasts become available closer to the target date.
Official temperature readings are typically sourced from the National Weather Service (NWS) or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) station located at the San Francisco International Airport.
The marine layer acts as an insulating blanket; a thicker, more persistent layer often prevents temperatures from dropping as low overnight compared to clear, cloudless nights.
No, this market is based strictly on the ambient air temperature recorded by standardized meteorological equipment, excluding wind chill or heat index factors.
The lowest temperature of a 24-hour cycle typically occurs shortly after sunrise, as the earth loses heat through longwave radiation throughout the night until solar heating begins.
Yes, significant atmospheric anomalies, such as unseasonable cold fronts or heat waves, can push temperatures outside of historical averages for late April.