| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the daily minimum temperature recorded in San Francisco on April 16, 2026. These data points are essential for understanding local climate volatility and seasonal weather patterns in the Bay Area.
San Francisco's microclimates are heavily influenced by the Pacific Ocean and coastal fog, often leading to significant temperature variations across the city. Historical data for mid-April typically shows a transition period between cool spring weather and the gradual approach of the region's summer fog season. Meteorologists analyze long-range pressure systems and sea surface temperatures to project localized temperature trends for this time of year.
Market sentiment reflects the collective expectation of weather models and historical climatological data for the San Francisco peninsula. Participants are betting on which temperature bracket will most accurately reflect the official reporting station's low for that specific date.
The market relies on the official temperature readings recorded by the National Weather Service (NWS) station at San Francisco International Airport (SFO).
The marine layer acts as an insulating blanket, often keeping overnight lows warmer than they would be under clear, dry conditions.
No, the market is settled based on the official reporting station at SFO, which may differ from temperatures in neighborhoods like the Sunset or the Mission.
Mid-April sits between the winter rainy season and the arrival of the more consistent summer fog, often resulting in high volatility for daily lows.
The market is settled based on the final, verified temperature reported by the NWS, regardless of whether extreme conditions occur.