| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded in San Francisco on April 15, 2026. It serves as a financial instrument for hedging against weather-related volatility or speculating on localized climate patterns.
San Francisco’s climate is heavily influenced by the Pacific Ocean and the city's unique topography, which creates significant microclimates. April typically marks the transition between the rainy winter season and the onset of the coastal fog season, leading to high variability in nighttime lows. Historical data from the National Weather Service provides the benchmark for these temperature readings.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants regarding the most likely temperature range, reflecting both seasonal averages and emerging meteorological trends.
The market utilizes official records provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) station located at the San Francisco International Airport (SFO).
It refers to the minimum air temperature recorded during the 24-hour period of April 15, 2026, as validated by official NWS climate reports.
While microclimates vary, the market is settled strictly based on the official data point from the designated reference weather station, not neighborhood-specific readings.
In the event of official data unavailability, the market protocol typically defaults to the primary backup reporting source designated by the exchange's governing rules.
Mid-April is generally characterized by moderate spring temperatures, but clearing skies after winter storms can occasionally lead to cooler-than-average nights due to radiative cooling.