| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport on April 7, 2026. It serves as a financial derivative for weather volatility in the American Southwest.
Phoenix experiences significant diurnal temperature variation, particularly during the transition from early spring to summer. Historically, early April is characterized by mild desert nights, but sudden shifts in high-pressure systems can lead to unseasonable cold fronts or lingering heatwaves. Climate data from the National Weather Service provides the definitive baseline for verifying this contract.
The market prices reflect the collective expectation of weather models and historical climate trends, with participants trading based on their assessment of regional atmospheric conditions.
Settlement is determined by the official daily minimum temperature readings published by the National Weather Service for Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.
In the event of a station outage, the market will rely on secondary official climate data providers or recognized meteorological reporting standards as defined in the contract specifications.
No, this market tracks the actual ambient air temperature recorded by standardized equipment, not subjective 'feels like' metrics.
As a major metropolitan area, Phoenix's concrete and asphalt infrastructure retains heat, often preventing overnight lows from dropping as far as they would in surrounding rural desert areas.
April 7 falls within the shoulder season where the transition from winter to the intense desert summer heat begins, making nighttime temperature lows highly sensitive to passing weather fronts.