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Climate and Weather OPEN

Lowest temperature in Phoenix on Apr 6, 2026?

📊 $0 traded 🏦 Source: Kalshi
Total Volume
$0
Open Interest
0
Active Markets
6
Markets
6

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Yes Ask
Last Price
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Prices in cents (1¢ = 1%). Trade on Kalshi.

All Outcomes (6)
Outcome Probability Yes Bid Yes Ask 24h Change Volume
64° or below 0%
$0 Trade →
65° to 66° 0%
$0 Trade →
67° to 68° 0%
$0 Trade →
69° to 70° 0%
$0 Trade →
71° to 72° 0%
$0 Trade →
73° or above 0%
$0 Trade →

About This Market

This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded in Phoenix, Arizona, on April 6, 2026. It serves as a localized instrument for participants to hedge against or speculate on meteorological volatility in the Sonoran Desert.

April in Phoenix marks the transition from pleasant spring weather to the early onset of desert heat. Historical data from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, the official observation site, shows significant variance in daily lows during early April, influenced by shifting pressure systems and dry air mass characteristics. Climatological records for this time of year typically feature a wide range of nightly minimums, making this a test of precision in long-range weather modeling.

Market prices represent the collective expectation of traders regarding the likelihood of the daily minimum temperature falling into a specific numeric bin.

Key Factors

Frequently Asked Questions

What official data source determines the final outcome for this market?

The official daily minimum temperature recorded by the National Weather Service at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX) is the definitive source.

How does the Urban Heat Island effect influence this outcome?

Phoenix's concrete and asphalt landscape traps heat, often preventing the overnight temperature from dropping as low as it would in the surrounding desert, which can skew the minimum temperature higher.

Does this market account for temperatures measured in other parts of the Phoenix metropolitan area?

No, this market relies exclusively on the official reading from the Sky Harbor station, which serves as the climate reporting point for the city.

What happens if there is a temperature record tied or missing data?

The market follows standard reporting procedures from the National Weather Service; if the primary station reports data, that figure is final.

Are extreme weather events like late-season cold fronts factored into these bins?

The provided bins are designed to encompass the historical range of variability, including potential deviations from the mean caused by unusual weather patterns.

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