| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded in Phoenix, Arizona, on April 20, 2026. It allows participants to hedge against or speculate on localized climate variability in one of the fastest-warming metropolitan areas in the United States.
Phoenix experiences a significant diurnal temperature variation, meaning nighttime lows can drop substantially even when daytime highs are extreme. Historically, late April in the Sonoran Desert marks the transition from spring to the onset of early summer heat, making nightly temperature fluctuations highly sensitive to local atmospheric patterns. Meteorological data is typically sourced from official National Weather Service observations at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of future weather patterns, aggregating meteorological forecasts and historical climatological trends.
The outcome is based on the daily minimum temperature officially recorded by the National Weather Service at the primary reporting station for Phoenix (Sky Harbor).
Prediction markets generally rely on official, finalized data released by the designated government agency; if data is missing, the market often relies on secondary official sources or predefined contingency rules.
No, the market strictly tracks the official observation station for Phoenix, not the ambient temperature across the entire metropolitan region.
April 20 serves as a specific snapshot of the desert's seasonal transition, testing the market's ability to price in long-term weather model projections.
Yes, while averages are well-documented, Arizona weather is prone to sudden shifts due to Pacific storm systems, which can lead to record-breaking cool or warm nights even in late spring.