| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded in Phoenix, Arizona, on April 16, 2026. Precise climate forecasting is essential for local utility planning, agricultural management, and understanding seasonal warming trends.
Phoenix is characterized by a desert climate where spring temperatures can fluctuate significantly between diurnal extremes. Historical data from the National Weather Service provides a baseline for mid-April, typically reflecting the transition period between cooler spring evenings and the onset of intense summer heat. This market captures the interplay between regional weather patterns and localized heat island effects.
Market prices reflect the collective anticipation of how much the observed minimum temperature will deviate from seasonal norms based on evolving meteorological forecasts.
The official daily minimum temperature recorded at the designated National Weather Service reporting station for Phoenix, Arizona.
No, the market is strictly based on the actual measured ambient air temperature.
The market resolves based on the official temperature reading reported by the National Weather Service, regardless of the severity of the weather conditions.
The concentration of asphalt and concrete in Phoenix traps heat throughout the day, often resulting in higher minimum temperatures at night compared to the surrounding rural desert.
The market closes as the event date approaches, with final settlement occurring once the National Weather Service releases the official daily climate summary for April 16, 2026.