| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest official air temperature recorded in Philadelphia will be on March 9, 2026. Outcomes matter to traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone monitoring the timing and severity of late-winter/early-spring cold events.
March in Philadelphia is a transitional month with high day-to-day variability: late-winter cold snaps and early spring warmth are both possible. Large-scale drivers such as Arctic air intrusions, coastal storms, and cloud/precipitation patterns have historically produced a wide range of daily minimums despite a long-term warming trend.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation about which temperature range will be the lowest reading that day and update as new forecast information arrives. Treat prices as relative market beliefs, not fixed forecasts—you should check the market page for the official resolution rules before trading.
The definition and the exact observing station used for settlement are specified in the market's resolution clause; generally it refers to the official minimum air temperature reported for the calendar date at the named NWS/NOAA observing site, measured by standard instruments at near-surface height.
The event’s resolution clause names the official station and data source that will be used. If the market page does not explicitly name a station, the contract typically defaults to the National Weather Service/NOAA official climate station for Philadelphia—confirm the exact source on the event page before trading.
The market resolution language specifies the time window; in practice 'on March 9' normally follows the local calendar day for the reporting station (Eastern Time), but you should verify the exact start/end times and whether observations are reported in local time or UTC on the market page.
Settlement rules and tie-break procedures are documented in the contract terms; typically the official published observation from the specified source determines the outcome and any exact-boundary handling follows the market’s stated tie-breaking or arbitration rules—check the event details.
The market close is listed as TBD; final resolution usually occurs after the official daily observations are published and any verification window elapses. The event page and contract terms state the expected resolution timeline and payout schedule—refer to those for precise timing.