| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| 46° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature observed in Philadelphia will be on March 8, 2026; it matters to traders hedging weather exposure and anyone interested in short-term climate variability for that date.
March is a transition month in the Mid-Atlantic with frequent swings between cold outbreaks and mild periods, so a single-day low can be influenced by large-scale patterns that change quickly. Historical March 8 readings in Philadelphia have ranged from wintry lows during late winter outbreaks to much warmer values on mild spring days, illustrating substantial day-to-day variability.
Prediction market prices reflect the market’s aggregated view of which outcome bin is most likely to contain the observed minimum; interpret odds as the crowd’s current assessment subject to change as new weather information arrives.
Resolution follows the market’s published rules: the lowest air temperature reported by the specified official observing location and time window on March 8, 2026. Check the market page for the exact designated station and observation protocol.
The market page or resolution rules list the official data source (for example, a specified NWS/ASOS station). That designated station’s official reported values determine the outcome — consult the market’s resolution details for the exact station identifier.
Unless the market rules state otherwise, 'on March 8' typically means the calendar day in local time (00:00 to 23:59 local), using the official hourly or daily observations from the designated station; verify the exact cutoff in the market’s resolution language.
Use climatology and recent years’ March 8 observations to frame baseline expectations, then adjust for current forecast guidance, ensemble spreads, and synoptic signals; remember that a single-day low is highly sensitive to short-term weather evolution.
Snow cover and clear, calm nights promote stronger radiational cooling and lower lows; overcast skies, wet ground, or onshore flow tend to keep nights milder. Track forecasts for precipitation type and cloud cover in the 48–72 hours before March 8.