| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38° to 39° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 33° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 7, 2026 will be. It matters for traders and for anyone with weather-sensitive risk or operational planning in the region, because overnight low temperatures affect energy demand, agriculture, and travel.
March is a transition month in the Mid-Atlantic with large day-to-day variability driven by the timing of cold fronts and coastal storms. Philadelphia’s lowest temperature on a given date can be influenced by late-season Arctic intrusions, snow cover, or a mild maritime air mass, so historical averages are less prescriptive than real-time forecasts. Recent climatology and the state of the stratosphere/troposphere can shift baseline expectations year to year.
Market prices reflect the aggregated expectations of participants and update as forecasts and observations evolve; they provide a real-time consensus signal but are not a substitute for deterministic weather forecasts. Use market odds alongside meteorological model guidance and official observations to form decisions.
The contract’s resolution rules on the KALSHI event page specify the official data source and station used for settlement; commonly markets use the National Weather Service/ASOS or the NOAA climate station identified in the event text. Check the event details for the exact station and data provider.
The event currently lists the close time as TBD. Settlement typically happens after the official daily observations for March 7 are posted by the specified station or data provider; KALSHI will publish the actual close and settlement timing in the event rules.
Outcome definitions and rounding rules are spelled out in the event’s resolution rules on KALSHI; markets commonly use whole-degree Fahrenheit rounding or exclusive bins, so confirm the exact mapping and any tie-breaking or rounding conventions in the contract text.
Monitor operational models (ECMWF, GFS, NAM, high-resolution runs like HRRR), local MOS guidance, surface observations from nearby stations, radar and satellite for cloud/precip timing, and NWS forecast discussions for front timing and potential snow. Short-term shifts in frontal timing and cloud cover often have the largest impact on overnight lows.
The event’s dispute and data-fallback procedures are defined in the contract rules on KALSHI; typical approaches use official archives from NWS/NOAA, a designated backup station, or an agreed-upon data provider. Consult the event page for the specific fallback and dispute resolution process.