| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 97% | 94¢ | 98¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 2% | 2¢ | 4¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 32° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to forecast the lowest air temperature observed in Philadelphia on March 6, 2026. Outcomes matter for weather-sensitive planning and test short-term forecasting skill in a variable early-March climate.
Philadelphia sits in the mid-Atlantic where early March can flip between late-winter cold and milder spring conditions; interannual variability means single-day minima can differ widely from climatological norms. The specific contract outcome depends on the official observing station, time window, and data source named in the market rules, which determine how raw observations are translated into a resolved value.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of participants given current forecasts, observations, and new information; they update as model runs and on-the-ground reports change. Treat prices as a real-time signal but always check the contract’s resolution rules before trading.
The market’s contract rules specify the official data source, observing station, time zone, and measurement units used for resolution; consult the market page or rulebook to identify that station and the exact local time window (typically the local calendar date).
The market currently lists the close time as TBD; watch the platform for an updated close time. Resolution normally occurs after the official daily summary from the named data source for March 6 is published, following the timeline defined in the contract.
Focus on the 48–72 hour model runs and ensemble spreads: sudden shifts in model consensus, the timing of fronts, or mesoscale features can materially change the expected overnight low. Track radar and surface observations in the 24 hours leading up to the date for last-mile adjustments.
Urban heat island effects, station siting (airport, riverside, or inland), and nearby water bodies can raise nighttime minima relative to outlying areas, so the station chosen by the contract may systematically differ from nearby sites.
The contract’s dispute and fallback procedures govern such cases: common resolutions include using an alternate official station, relying on corrected official datasets from the designated climate office, or following a specified arbitration process. Check the market rules for the exact fallback and voiding policies.