| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 36° or below | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 40% | 35¢ | 42¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 9% | 7¢ | 10¢ | — | $905 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $780 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 41% | 41¢ | 45¢ | — | $241 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 5, 2026 will be; it matters for participants tracking weather risk, energy demand, and event planning tied to near-term temperature outcomes.
Philadelphia in early March is meteorologically transitional, so outcomes can swing between late-winter cold snaps and milder spring-like temperatures depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Historical variability, the presence or absence of snow cover, and the chosen observing station all affect the realized minimum temperature; this market aggregates trader expectations ahead of the observation.
Market prices represent the collective expectations about which temperature outcome will occur and update as new forecast information arrives; interpret prices as forward-looking signals that incorporate current weather model guidance and recent observations.
The close time is listed as TBD on the event page; check the KALSHI market listing for any updated close time or platform notices prior to the observation date.
Settlement uses the official observing source specified in the market rules—typically an authoritative local National Weather Service/NOAA station or other designated official station—so confirm the exact source on the market page.
The term refers to the minimum air temperature during the specified local time window on March 5, 2026 at the designated observing station; the market rules define the exact time range and whether measurements are rounded or reported to a specific precision.
This market has six mutually exclusive outcomes representing predefined temperature bins or discrete values; the market listing shows the exact thresholds or labels used for each outcome and how they map to the observed value for settlement.
Settlement follows the market's data-revision policy: the market will use the official value from the specified agency as of the settlement cutoff defined in the rules, so consult the event's settlement policy for the revision handling and cutoff timing.