| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° to 42° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 99% | 83¢ | 97¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 36° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the lowest recorded temperature in Philadelphia on March 4, 2026. The outcome matters for local energy demand, travel planning, and short-term weather-risk assessment.
Early March sits in a transition period between winter and spring for the Philadelphia region, so temperatures can swing from mild to sharply cold depending on synoptic-scale systems. Philadelphia’s proximity to the Atlantic and its urban heat island both influence overnight lows, and individual storm tracks or cold-air intrusions have produced historically wide variation on this date.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants about which temperature bin will be observed and can be used alongside meteorological forecasts. Treat the market as a real-time, continuously updating signal rather than a definitive forecast.
The event uses the official 24-hour local date of March 4, 2026 as defined by the platform's settlement rules; consult the event details for the precise local-time window and any UTC conversion.
The market will settle to the authoritative observation source specified in the event rules—commonly official National Weather Service or local airport station records; check the event page for the named station or dataset used for settlement.
Each of the six outcomes represents a mutually exclusive temperature range (a bin) defined on the event page; review the listed outcome labels there for the exact boundaries that determine settlement.
The market's close time is currently listed as TBD; platforms typically close markets before the observation window or at a published deadline, and final settlement occurs after the official observations for March 4 are released—consult the event timeline on the platform for updates.
Use historical March 4 climatology and station records to establish the typical range and records for the date, then combine that context with current model guidance and recent weather trends; historical data provide baseline context but do not guarantee a specific outcome for a single day.