| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official lowest daily temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 30, 2026. Weather derivatives like this allow participants to hedge against or speculate on climate variability in the mid-Atlantic region.
March in Philadelphia is a transitional month, typically characterized by significant volatility as winter systems give way to spring. Historical data from the National Weather Service indicates that late-March temperatures can range from freezing to well into the 60s Fahrenheit depending on the passage of cold fronts or warm air masses. Climate patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation often dictate the severity of late-winter temperature swings in the Northeast.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of where the daily minimum temperature will fall, with higher prices indicating higher market confidence in a specific temperature bracket.
The market utilizes official data reported by the National Weather Service for Philadelphia, typically recorded at Philadelphia International Airport.
The market rules will specify the rounding methodology and the definitive threshold boundaries for each outcome bracket.
Traders often adjust positions based on GFS and ECMWF medium-range forecast models, which provide increasingly accurate temperature outlooks as the date approaches.
The 'lowest temperature' refers to the minimum value recorded during the full 24-hour calendar day, which most frequently occurs in the early morning hours before sunrise.
Yes, major storm systems can drastically alter overnight cooling patterns, often keeping temperatures higher than they would be on a clear, calm night.