| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 25° to 26° | 4% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 29° to 30° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 24° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 27° to 28° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $997 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature reported for Philadelphia will be on March 3, 2026; it matters to traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability. Outcomes summarize collective expectations about a single-day meteorological observation.
Early March in the Philadelphia region is a transitional period when cold continental air masses and milder maritime air can both occur, so daily lows can swing substantially from year to year. Synoptic-scale systems (cold fronts, coastal storms) and local factors (urban heat island, snow cover) strongly influence single‑day minimums, and record lows for early March are well separated from typical seasonal values.
Market prices reflect the market’s consensus about which reported temperature range is most likely to occur for that specific date and reporting station; they are a snapshot of collective judgment and can move as forecasts and observations update. Use prices to compare competing scenarios rather than as fixed forecasts—check the contract rules to understand precisely which observation will determine settlement.
Settlement follows the market’s posted contract rules which specify the official observing station and dataset (for example the designated NOAA/NWS station for Philadelphia) and the exact method (e.g., lowest hourly/minute observation) used to determine the daily low; consult the KALSHI contract page for that precise definition.
Yes — the contract date is interpreted in local time for the designated reporting station; the market’s rule page will state the time zone and the 24‑hour window used for the event.
The market’s close time is marked on the trading page (currently listed as TBD); final settlement typically occurs after the official observational data for Mar 3 are published by the designated monitoring agency and any waiting period in the contract rules has elapsed.
Market settlement follows the official recorded value from the specified reporting station on the date in question; any long-term homogenization or historical adjustments are generally not applied unless the contract rules explicitly state otherwise, so check the contract for handling of station changes.
Intraday price moves generally reflect updates in numerical weather models, new observations, and changing ensemble forecasts that alter expectations about temperature-driving factors (air mass, cloud cover, snow); use those moves to gauge shifting sentiment but verify against the contract’s settlement definition before trading.