| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26° to 27° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to forecast the lowest air temperature recorded for Philadelphia on March 29, 2026; it matters to people and businesses sensitive to cold exposure, energy demand, and seasonal weather anomalies. Outcomes aggregate market expectations about overnight and early-morning conditions for that specific date.
Late March is a transitional month in the Mid-Atlantic, so temperature outcomes depend on the timing of synoptic storms, cold-air intrusions, and local effects such as snow cover or urban heating. Historical March 29 observations show substantial year-to-year variability, so forecasters combine model guidance with local climatology. The market will settle to an official observed value as specified in the contract terms.
Prediction market odds reflect the collective expectation of traders about which outcome will occur; interpret prices as a summary of current market sentiment rather than a fixed forecast, and consult the market’s settlement rules and data source before trading.
The market settles to the official lowest air temperature as defined in the contract—typically the minimum instantaneous or hourly air temperature recorded by the named official station during the local date of March 29; check the market description for the exact definition, measurement height, and rounding rules.
The contract specifies the authoritative data source (for example, a named NWS/NOAA station or official municipal observation); traders should review the market page to confirm the exact station and dataset that will be used for settlement.
Outcome determination occurs after the March 29 local date ends and the designated data provider publishes the official observation; settlement timing depends on the market’s verification window and dispute procedures spelled out in the contract, so consult the listing for settlement schedule details.
Use historical climatology to provide context about typical and extreme values for late March, but combine that with current model forecasts and real-time observations because climatology alone does not capture short-term synoptic influences that determine a single day's low.
Yes—if the official data provider issues corrections or if station metadata indicates instrument issues, the market follows the provider’s corrected record and the platform’s dispute/settlement rules; traders should read the contract’s clauses on data corrections and dispute resolution.